RiskAnalytica The Science of Applied Risk Management Contact Us: 416-782-7475 or connect@riskanalytica.com

RiskAnalytica Publications

Diagnostic transitions from childhood to adolescence to early adulthood

Quantifying diagnostic transitions across development is needed to estimate the long-term burden of mental illness. This study estimated patterns of diagnostic transitions from childhood to adolescence and from adolescence to early adulthood.

Synthesis through simulation: insights on the epidemiology of mood and anxiety disorders in Canada

Prevalence estimates for mood and anxiety disorders in Canada are available, but various methodological approaches have produced inconsistent results. Simulation studies involve careful examination of available data by an expert modelling team working together with subject matter experts. Simulation can integrate datasets and literature-based estimates from various sources into a coherent mathematical representation of the underlying total population epidemiology.

Simulation as a Strategy for Linking Epidemiologic Data to Health Policy Decisions

Epidemiologic estimates for mood and anxiety disorders have been available for several decades, but using this information to improve population mental health is a difficult challenge. In distinction to traditional epidemiologic methods (e.g. estimation of population parameters), simulation involves developing a representation of the epidemiology, allowing exploration of “what if” scenarios reflecting alternative policy options. A simulation model representing the epidemiology of mood and anxiety disorders in Canada has recently been developed and played a role in shaping Canada’s recently published national mental health strategy.

The Potential Impact of Pharmaceutical Interventions

The objective of the study was to estimate the potential health and economic benefits that may arise due to pharmaceutical interventions in a wide variety of illnesses.

Public Infrastructure Investment in Ontario: The Importance of Staying the Course

The Ontario government recently announced a 10-year infrastructure plan entitled Building Together. It promises to build upon the long-term approach to infrastructure investment from the previous ReNew Ontario plan. As a result, the awareness of infrastructure investment in Ontario has increased. However, while the public has an intuitive understanding of the importance of infrastructure to the economic prosperity of the province, it is likely that the majority of the population does not fully recognize the personal risks associated with continued underinvestment.

The Life and Economic Impact of Major Mental Illnesses in Canada: 2011 to 2041

Mental illness is a behavioural or psychological syndrome that significantly interferes with an individual’s thought processing abilities, social abilities, emotions and behaviour (Mental Disorders, WHO). Depending on the type of mental illness, the severity of the illness may vary from mild to severe and contribute to disability and health care service use.

Life and Economic Burden of Arthritis in Canada 2010 to 2040

Arthritis is one of the most prevalent chronic conditions in Canada and one of the leading causes of disability and health care utilization. The aging of the Canadian population has led to an epidemiological shift in disease profile, resulting in illnesses such as arthritis becoming one of the biggest challenges facing society. Prevalence projections suggest that by 2010 over 4.4 million Canadians will have osteoarthritis (OA) and over 272,200 will have rheumatoid arthritis (RA), representing 13.0% and 0.8% of the Canadian population, respectively.

Life and Economic Impact of Lung Disease in Ontario: 2011 to 2041

Asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and lung cancer are highly prevalent in Ontario and a leading cause of disability, suffering and health care service use. The aging of the Ontario population coupled with risk factors such as smoking, has led to lung disease becoming one of the key challenges facing society. Prevalence estimates suggest that over 2.4 million Ontarians currently have some form of lung disease, representing 18.2% of the Ontario population. In 2011, the growing burden on health care and social service systems in Ontario is estimated to be $1.6 billion, $3.3 billion and $158.6 million in direct health care costs alone, for asthma, COPD and lung cancer, respectively. The total economic burdens (direct and indirect costs) for asthma, COPD and lung cancer are estimated to be over $1.8 billion, $3.9 billion and $293.9 million, respectively. The life and economic consequences of lung disease will be further magnified over the next 30 years due to the increase in the expected number of people living with these conditions.

Potential pediatric intensive care unit demand/ capacity mismatch due to novel pH1N1 in Canada

To investigate the possibility of pediatric intensive care unit shortfalls, using pandemic models for a range of attack rates and durations. The emergence of the swine origin pH1N1 virus has led to concerns about shortfalls in our ability to provide pediatric ventilation and critical care support.

H1N1 2009 Pandemic Analysis: Evaluation and Scenarios for Post-Pandemic Planning

The 2009 pH1N1 pandemic took the lives of 428 individuals and led to 8,678 hospitalizations in Canada. Despite these sobering numbers, it appears that as a result of existing pandemic preparation measures, Canadian health services were able to mitigate the effects of the virus and avoid a more serious public health crisis. However, it must be emphasized that pH1N1 proved to be generally mild and that, despite this, many issues emerged during the pandemic, raising questions about the capacity of the healthcare system and the appropriate level of intervention in such circumstances. Since pH1N1, the notion of a pandemic is no longer as abstract as it once appeared, either for public health officials or for the general population. Using pH1N1 Canadian data as a baseline, this analysis seeks to inform post‐pandemic public health discussions that focus on the evaluation of antiviral and vaccine interventions, considering several plausible hypothetical scenarios.